Reported by today.ucsd.edu
El Niño is a climate pattern that is declared when monthly sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are measured above normal, for consecutive overlapping three-month periods. In early October, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced an 83% chance that a strong-to-very-strong El Niño would arrive January through March 2027.
El Niño’s effects can be powerful and even deadly. El Niño-driven ocean warming can increase global temperatures, alter atmospheric patterns, raise sea levels along coastlines, deliver large waves and dangerous coastal conditions, and impact marine ecosystems.
NOAA declares an El Niño when temperatures at the equator of the Pacific Ocean are 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average for several consecutive months. Temperatures are currently tracking 4.0°C (7.2°F) above normal. That big difference takes this event from a moderate event to a potentially historic event that exceeds the strength of all previous El Niño events that have been tracked since the 1950s.
According to Scripps Oceanography climate scientist Alexander Gershunov , El Niño is a natural pattern, but it’s occurring in an unnaturally warming world.
With a boost from El Niño, it’s almost certain that we will set a new global temperature record this year,” said Gershunov.
